TEHRAN- In the wake of escalated military aggression by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran, regional tensions have reached a critical threshold.

Experts now warn that one of the most consequential outcomes of such hostilities—the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz—could inflict severe damage on the global economy, with the United States standing to suffer significant repercussions.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway separating the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman, serves as the world’s most vital oil chokepoint. 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, approximately one-fifth of global petroleum consumption passes through this strait daily. 

Any disruption, even partial, would send immediate shockwaves through energy markets.

Recent provocations by U.S. and Israeli forces have placed Iran in a position where defending its sovereignty is both a right and a necessity. 

Iranian military officials have repeatedly stated that in the event of an attack, the Islamic Republic reserves the option to restrict passage through the strait—a legitimate act of self-defense under international law. 

Beyond energy, the strait is also a critical artery for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, relies entirely on this route. Any closure would cripple European energy security at a time when the continent is already vulnerable.

Economists at Reuters and Bloomberg have echoed these concerns. In a recent analysis, Bloomberg Economics estimated that a month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz could shave 1.5 to 2 percentage points off global GDP growth, tipping major economies into recession. The United States, despite being less directly reliant on Persian Gulf oil than in previous decades, would not be immune. U.S. oil prices are set by global markets, and American consumers would feel the impact at the pump within days. 

Moreover, the U.S. military presence in the region would come under direct threat, potentially drawing American forces into a costly and prolonged conflict.

International maritime insurers have already issued warnings about escalating risk premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf. 

The cost of shipping and insurance would rise dramatically even before any formal closure, further fueling global inflation.

It must be stated clearly: the current crisis stems directly from aggressive posturing by the United States and Israel. 

These actions constitute clear violations of international law and the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Any nation subjected to such belligerence has the inherent right to defend its territorial integrity. 

The condemnation of these unlawful attacks is not merely a matter of political stance but a prerequisite for peace and stability in West Asia.

The United Nations Security Council has repeatedly called for restraint, yet Washington and Tel Aviv have continued their escalatory measures. 

Iranian officials have emphasized that Iran seeks peace and stability in the region, but will not hesitate to respond decisively if attacked.

Analysts caution that miscalculation on either side could lead to an uncontrollable spiral. 

Professor Liu Zhongmin of the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University, in comments to the Global Times cited by TASS, offered a sobering assessment:

"While concerns previously focused on the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation now threatens not only transportation but also production. Strikes on gas fields and oil production facilities could put both energy production and transportation at risk simultaneously, with potentially immeasurable consequences for the global economy" . 

In sum, the reckless provocations by the United States and Israel endanger not only regional peace but also the economic well-being of nations far beyond West Asia.

The international community must unequivocally condemn these aggressive acts and support diplomatic solutions. 

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not a scenario anyone should contemplate lightly—but it is one that the aggressors are irresponsibly making more likely with every passing day.